Dossiers are research-only. Short-horizon probabilities are deliberately uncalibrated baseline forecasts used to create future learning data, not trade signals.
Only whitelisted first-party publishers with verified AUM above the configured threshold are eligible. Deep paper analysis activates only after a lightweight potential gate. All outputs are zero thesis weight and are research-direction signals, not authority-weighted forecasts.
Qualified publishers 3 · deep analyses this run 0 · active high-potential papers 2 · candidate hints 6.
| Asset | Theme | Research priority | Publishers | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANM | AI_INFRASTRUCTURE | 0.720 | 2 | SEARCH_HINT_NOT_EXPOSURE_EVIDENCE |
| ZD | AI_INFRASTRUCTURE | 0.709 | 2 | SEARCH_HINT_NOT_EXPOSURE_EVIDENCE |
| CWEN | ENERGY_INFRASTRUCTURE | 0.679 | 1 | SEARCH_HINT_NOT_EXPOSURE_EVIDENCE |
| DRS | AI_INFRASTRUCTURE | 0.675 | 2 | SEARCH_HINT_NOT_EXPOSURE_EVIDENCE |
| DRS | REINDUSTRIALIZATION | 0.662 | 1 | SEARCH_HINT_NOT_EXPOSURE_EVIDENCE |
| SANM | REINDUSTRIALIZATION | 0.632 | 1 | SEARCH_HINT_NOT_EXPOSURE_EVIDENCE |
DOSSIER_RESEARCH_ONLY · score 0.791 · risk penalty 1.00 · current price $30.23
Corroboration: MARKET_CROSS_CHECKED_FUNDAMENTALS_UNCORROBORATED · independent organizations 2 · independent fundamental confirmations 0.
State: PARTIAL_CURRENT_CYCLE_SNAPSHOT · partial normalization only · zero thesis weight.
DATED_DEFINITION_DIFFERENCE_RECONCILED
Primary revenue: 1,574,000,000 USD, period ending 2026-06-30.
Publisher summary dates do not verify matching financial periods. Standardized free cash flow does not establish cash distributable to equity.
State: THESIS_REVIEW_READY · essential checks 8/8 · enhancers 2/4.
Discovery score is not a readiness gate. Ready means review-ready, not calibrated or capital-ready.
No essential research blocker remains for formal thesis review.
FORMAL_REVIEW_DRAFT
Reported evidence and scenario conditions need review. No approved thesis or capital allocation follows from this draft.
Selected primary filing; reporting period 2026-06-30.
Spending lines remain separate. A spending-definition discrepancy can be resolved only by the explicit matched-period bridge below. Reported charges have not been normalized away.
OBSERVED_ALTERNATIVE_ARITHMETIC_NOT_VERIFIED_PUBLISHER_DEFINITION
Additional affiliate spending TTM: 139,000,000 USD. Alternative capital spending: 485,000,000 USD. Alternative FCF: 532,000,000 USD; publisher FCF: 532,000,000 USD.
Dated annual and TTM publisher rows match the issuer's broader-spending basis. The summary discrepancy is reconciled; the original standardized FCF remains separately recorded. Private provider methodology and cash distributable to equity remain unverified.
DATED_TABLE_AND_ISSUER_SPENDING_BASIS_RECONCILED
Statement source: dated publisher table; collected 2026-10-07T17:35:38.535646+00:00.
TTM operating cash flow usd at 2026-06-30: issuer basis 1,017,000,000 USD; publisher 1,017,000,000 USD.
TTM capex signed usd at 2026-06-30: issuer basis -485,000,000 USD; publisher -485,000,000 USD.
TTM free cash flow usd at 2026-06-30: issuer basis 532,000,000 USD; publisher 532,000,000 USD.
FY 2025 operating cash flow usd at 2025-12-31: issuer basis 688,000,000 USD; publisher 688,000,000 USD.
FY 2025 capex signed usd at 2025-12-31: issuer basis -346,000,000 USD; publisher -346,000,000 USD.
FY 2025 free cash flow usd at 2025-12-31: issuer basis 342,000,000 USD; publisher 342,000,000 USD.
SOURCE_REVIEW_COMPLETE_WITH_UNDERWRITING_GAPS
Matched issuer exhibit; filed 2026-08-05, period ending 2026-06-30.
Conditional conclusion: CONTRACTED_CASH_CASE_REQUIRES_EQUITY_UNDERWRITING
Conditional investment case: Contracted asset cash must support common distributions and required reinvestment after debt and partner claims without unsustainable refinancing or dilution.
Valuation discipline: Preserve standardized and broader-spending FCF separately; do not replace either with CAFD or an ownership sensitivity.
Issuer non-GAAP; matched quarter and YTD historical reconciliation, USD. Cash interest is already in OCF and is not subtracted again.
| Component | Quarter | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 214,000,000 | 615,000,000 |
| Working-capital and other reversal | 92,000,000 | -171,000,000 |
| Affiliate capital return | 3,000,000 | 8,000,000 |
| Net noncontrolling contributions/distributions | -45,000,000 | -48,000,000 |
| Note receipts | 1,000,000 | 2,000,000 |
| Maintenance capex | 0 | -5,000,000 |
| Scheduled principal | -98,000,000 | -165,000,000 |
| CAFD before adjustments | 167,000,000 | 236,000,000 |
| Construction debt-service timing | 0 | 1,000,000 |
| Reported CAFD | 167,000,000 | 237,000,000 |
Growth capital spending is not deducted in CAFD. Issuer refinancing assumptions require underwriting.
Restricted cash is not unrestricted equity cash. Current debt is not additional YTD scheduled principal.
Reported YTD transferable tax-credit proceeds: 282,000,000 USD; operating cash observation, not free public-common cash.
Reported PP&E spending: 159,000,000 USD; growth: 154,000,000 USD; maintenance net of credits: 5,000,000 USD.
LLC economic ownership at 2026-06-30: company 59.03%; sponsor 40.97%. Ownership-scaled CAFD sensitivity: 139,901,100 USD. This does not establish cash distributable to public common shareholders.
The selected filing reports the May 1, 2026 Class A-to-Class C conversion.
The publisher share count, market-cap/price implied count and dated filing class counts have different dates or class scopes. Per-share scenario prices and analyst-target comparisons are withheld; original outputs remain available for audit. No replacement denominator is guessed.
Publisher share count: 205,270,000; count implied by publisher market cap and price: 163,913,710.
Filing Class B shares at 2026-07-31: 42,738,750.
Filing Class C shares at 2026-07-31: 121,174,960.
Filing Class D shares at 2026-07-31: 41,361,142.
HISTORICAL_COMMON_SHARE_SCOPE_VERIFIED_CURRENT_CAPITALIZATION_UNRESOLVED.
Class C shares receive Company dividends as declared; sponsor distributions pass through Class B and D LLC units. Point-in-time stock counts are separate from weighted-average earnings shares and LLC unit counts.
| Filing date of count | Class C | Class B + D | All stock classes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 121,168,025 | 84,099,892 | 205,267,917 |
| 2026-07-31 | 121,174,960 | 84,099,892 | 205,274,852 |
At 2026-06-30, publisher shares minus all-class filing shares: 2,083; market-cap/price implied shares minus Class B + C: 6934.993224948645. Arithmetic matches do not establish provider methodology.
At 2026-07-31, publisher shares minus all-class filing shares: -4,852; market-cap/price implied shares minus Class B + C: -0.0067750513553619385. Arithmetic matches do not establish provider methodology.
Publisher share display: 205.27M; collected 2026-10-07T17:35:35.383635+00:00, page updated 2026-10-07. Collection and page-update dates are not verified share or quote effective dates.
The historical Class C denominator is identified. Current capitalization, subsequent issuance/exchanges and cash attributable to common shares remain unresolved; no current input override or per-share fair value follows.
HISTORICAL_DISTRIBUTION_SPLIT_RECONCILED_RECURRING_CASH_UNVERIFIED.
YTD Company common distributions: 112,000,000 USD; sponsor-unit distributions: 78,000,000 USD; combined ordinary distributions: 190,000,000 USD. Company common includes pre-conversion Class A; the combined amount is not all public-common cash.
Historical issuer CAFD less combined ordinary distributions: 47,000,000 USD; after separately reported growth spending: -107,000,000 USD. Mixed-scope non-GAAP arithmetic, not common-cash coverage or a forecast.
Financing flows remain separate; no dividend-funding cause is assigned. Scheduled principal is already in CAFD. The total debt-repayment difference is unclassified and is not added as recurring debt service. Recurring common cash and sustainable refinancing remain unverified.
HISTORICAL_FINANCING_AND_LIQUIDITY_RECONCILED_REFINANCING_UNVERIFIED.
As of 2026-06-30; reported debt and cash tables use USD millions.
Group liquidity includes restricted cash and unused credit capacity. Inc/LLC cash excluding subsidiaries is separate from subsidiary cash; subsidiary upstreamability and common distributable cash remain unverified.
Dated repayment observations total 482,000,000 USD. Subtracting from reported long-term repayments leaves 165,000,000 USD; CAFD scheduled principal is 165,000,000 USD. Arithmetic matching does not prove exhaustive borrower-level recurring debt-service allocation; no new CAFD deduction follows.
The senior-note-funded revolver repayment is separately disclosed as 361,000,000 USD. Do not add it to the long-term repayment residual. Cardinal acquisition-loan maturity: 2027-03-29. Construction conversion remains conditional on completion and tax-equity funding.
Covenant compliance is an issuer statement dated 2026-06-30. Historical terms and maturity ranges do not verify a complete future schedule, sustainable refinancing or recurring common cash.
HISTORICAL_BORROWER_MATURITIES_RECONCILED_CURRENT_SCHEDULE_UNVERIFIED.
Principal calendar maturities as of 2025-12-31; USD millions in the primary filing. Later principal balance as of 2026-06-30: 9,137,000,000 USD; balance change 463,000,000 USD is not a maturity roll-forward.
| Borrower | Scope | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | thereafter | Total principal | Rounding residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clearway Energy Operating LLC Senior Notes, due 2028 | corporate | 0 | 0 | 850,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 850,000,000 | 0 |
| Clearway Energy Operating LLC Senior Notes, due 2031 | corporate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 925,000,000 | 925,000,000 | 0 |
| Clearway Energy Operating LLC Senior Notes, due 2032 | corporate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 350,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 0 |
| Clearway Energy LLC and Clearway Energy Operating LLC Revolving Credit Facility, due 2028 | corporate | 0 | 0 | 361,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 361,000,000 | 0 |
| Agua Caliente Solar LLC, due 2037 | facility | 40,000,000 | 41,000,000 | 43,000,000 | 44,000,000 | 46,000,000 | 321,000,000 | 535,000,000 | 0 |
| Alta Wind Asset Management LLC, due 2031 | facility | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 8,000,000 | 0 |
| Alta Wind I-V lease financing arrangements, due 2034 and 2035 | facility | 55,000,000 | 57,000,000 | 61,000,000 | 63,000,000 | 63,000,000 | 256,000,000 | 555,000,000 | 0 |
| Alta Wind Realty Investments LLC, due 2031 | facility | 2,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 15,000,000 | 0 |
| Borrego, due 2038 | facility | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 27,000,000 | 42,000,000 | 0 |
| Buckthorn Solar, due 2031 | facility | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 75,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 0 |
| Capistrano Portfolio Holdco LLC, due 2033 | facility | 12,000,000 | 13,000,000 | 14,000,000 | 15,000,000 | 15,000,000 | 37,000,000 | 106,000,000 | 0 |
| Carlsbad Energy Holdings LLC, due 2027 | facility | 26,000,000 | 20,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46,000,000 | 0 |
| Carlsbad Energy Holdings LLC, due 2038 | facility | 0 | 7,000,000 | 25,000,000 | 29,000,000 | 31,000,000 | 315,000,000 | 407,000,000 | 0 |
| Carlsbad Holdco, LLC, due 2038 | facility | 9,000,000 | 11,000,000 | 10,000,000 | 12,000,000 | 12,000,000 | 136,000,000 | 190,000,000 | 0 |
| Cedar Creek, due 2029 | facility | 2,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 98,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 106,000,000 | 0 |
| Cedro Hill, due 2029 | facility | 9,000,000 | 9,000,000 | 10,000,000 | 63,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 91,000,000 | 0 |
| CVSR, due 2037 | facility | 32,000,000 | 35,000,000 | 37,000,000 | 40,000,000 | 42,000,000 | 357,000,000 | 543,000,000 | 0 |
| CVSR Holdco Notes, due 2037 | facility | 9,000,000 | 9,000,000 | 10,000,000 | 9,000,000 | 10,000,000 | 87,000,000 | 134,000,000 | 0 |
| Daggett 1, due 2030 | facility | 2,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 121,000,000 | 0 | 132,000,000 | 0 |
| Daggett 2, due 2028 | facility | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 152,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154,000,000 | 0 |
| Daggett 3, due 2028 | facility | 0 | 0 | 216,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216,000,000 | 0 |
| DG-CS Master Borrower LLC, due 2040 | facility | 30,000,000 | 28,000,000 | 20,000,000 | 19,000,000 | 19,000,000 | 211,000,000 | 327,000,000 | 0 |
| Honeycomb Portfolio, due 2026 (a) | facility | 490,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 490,000,000 | 0 |
| Luna Valley, due 2030 | facility | 4,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 176,000,000 | 0 | 195,000,000 | 0 |
| Mililani Class B Member Holdco LLC, due 2028 | facility | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 81,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87,000,000 | 0 |
| NIMH Solar, due 2031 and 2033 | facility | 16,000,000 | 17,000,000 | 17,000,000 | 17,000,000 | 15,000,000 | 29,000,000 | 111,000,000 | 0 |
| Oahu Solar Holdings LLC, due 2026 | facility | 75,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75,000,000 | 0 |
| Pine Forest, due 2030 | facility | 231,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 2,000,000 | 101,000,000 | 0 | 334,000,000 | 0 |
| Rosie Class B LLC, due 2029 | facility | 7,000,000 | 7,000,000 | 7,000,000 | 165,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 186,000,000 | 0 |
| Rosamond South 1, due 2030 | facility | 0 | 3,000,000 | 7,000,000 | 8,000,000 | 210,000,000 | 0 | 228,000,000 | 0 |
| TSN1 Class B Member LLC, due 2029 | facility | 8,000,000 | 9,000,000 | 10,000,000 | 142,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 169,000,000 | 0 |
| Tuolumne, due 2030 | facility | 15,000,000 | 15,000,000 | 14,000,000 | 14,000,000 | 96,000,000 | 0 | 154,000,000 | 0 |
| Utah Solar Holdings, due 2036 | facility | 16,000,000 | 16,000,000 | 12,000,000 | 16,000,000 | 13,000,000 | 140,000,000 | 213,000,000 | 0 |
| Viento Funding II, LLC, due 2029 | facility | 20,000,000 | 24,000,000 | 25,000,000 | 74,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 143,000,000 | 0 |
| Other | facility | 16,000,000 | 16,000,000 | 17,000,000 | 12,000,000 | 12,000,000 | 23,000,000 | 96,000,000 | 0 |
Calendar principal excludes interest and separate contractual claims. The 2026 reference includes 431,000,000 USD of construction funding or conversion exposure. Current borrower schedules, refinancing and recurring common cash remain unverified. No additional CAFD deduction.
REPORTED_CAFD_EXCLUSIONS_RECONCILED_FORWARD_COMMON_CASH_UNVERIFIED.
YTD reported tax-credit cash 282,000,000 USD; issuer Pine Forest exclusion 279,000,000 USD; tax-credit line retained in CAFD 3,000,000 USD. The retained amount is not verified recurring common cash.
Net partner financing cash -119,000,000 USD minus excluded net distributions -71,000,000 USD reconciles to -48,000,000 USD in CAFD. This net partner scope is separate from ordinary Company/sponsor distributions.
Reported long-term repayments 647,000,000 USD less the issuer's disclosed exclusion 482,000,000 USD gives scheduled principal 165,000,000 USD. The issuer-reported historical exclusion reconciles; borrower-level future recurring service remains unverified.
Existing CAFD adjustments are preserved. Additional CAFD deduction applied by this review: zero. Do not deduct gross tax-credit, partner or bridge cash a second time.
Aggregate inception carrying amounts 223,000,000 USD; aggregate lifetime payments 277,000,000 USD. These figures are not a remaining payment schedule and are not added to reported debt or subtracted from CAFD. Mesquite Sky payments began before the June reporting date.
Company dividends depend on LLC cash distributions, prudent reserves, available capital and contractual conditions. Partner LLC agreements allocate cash and may require return top-ups. Distribution intent does not verify actual upstreamable common cash.
SOURCE_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE.
Unresolved market-input evidence: One explicitly dated regular close required.
Proposed thesis breaker for review: Recurring asset cash after debt and partner claims cannot sustain common distributions and required reinvestment without unsustainable refinancing or dilution.
Analytical findings can be complete while investment approval remains pending. No final breaker, probability, buy approval or capital allocation is established; zero decision weight.
Final pre-purchase thesis breaker remains unselected. Review completion and capital eligibility remain false; zero decision weight.
State: RESEARCH_ONLY_SCENARIO_RANGE · zero thesis weight · no scenario probabilities.
DOSSIER_RESEARCH_ONLY · score 0.927 · risk penalty 1.00 · current price $0.18
Corroboration: TWO_INDEPENDENT_THIRD_PARTY_SOURCES_SCOPE_DIFFERENT · independent organizations 2 · independent fundamental confirmations 0.
State: CHAIN_ECOSYSTEM_ECONOMICS_OBSERVED_TOKEN_CAPTURE_UNVERIFIED · token value capture remains unverified.
HISTORICAL_STAKING_PROPOSAL_DISTRIBUTION_NOT_ACTIVATED
Project reports are separate from verified holder economics; zero decision weight.
State: BLOCKED_VALUE_CAPTURE_UNVERIFIED · essential checks 9/10 · enhancers 2/4.
Discovery score is not a readiness gate. Ready means review-ready, not calibrated or capital-ready.
Blockers: TOKEN_VALUE_CAPTURE_UNVERIFIED
EVIDENCE_FOLLOWUP_REQUIRED
Reported evidence and scenario conditions need review. No approved thesis or capital allocation follows from this draft.
Spending lines remain separate. A spending-definition discrepancy can be resolved only by the explicit matched-period bridge below. Reported charges have not been normalized away.
Final pre-purchase thesis breaker remains unselected. Review completion and capital eligibility remain false; zero decision weight.
State: VALUATION_BLOCKED_VALUE_CAPTURE_UNVERIFIED · zero thesis weight · no scenario probabilities.
DOSSIER_RESEARCH_ONLY · score 0.893 · risk penalty 1.00 · current price $0.12
Corroboration: TWO_INDEPENDENT_THIRD_PARTY_SOURCES_SCOPE_DIFFERENT · independent organizations 2 · independent fundamental confirmations 0.
State: CHAIN_ECOSYSTEM_ECONOMICS_OBSERVED_TOKEN_CAPTURE_UNVERIFIED · token value capture remains unverified.
BUYBACK_EXECUTION_REPORTED_CUSTODY_AND_NET_CAPTURE_UNVERIFIED
Project reports are separate from verified holder economics; zero decision weight.
SCOPED_RPC_TRANSFERS_OBSERVED_CAPTURE_UNVERIFIED
Amounts and timing are observations. Revenue funding, wallet control, disposal purpose and net holder capture remain unverified.
OP balance: 14389381.5197749536868392 at finalized block 157897191.
RPC transfers observed: 6; indexed records corroborated: 6. Complete wallet history has not been verified.
State: BLOCKED_VALUE_CAPTURE_UNVERIFIED · essential checks 9/10 · enhancers 2/4.
Discovery score is not a readiness gate. Ready means review-ready, not calibrated or capital-ready.
Blockers: TOKEN_VALUE_CAPTURE_UNVERIFIED
EVIDENCE_FOLLOWUP_REQUIRED
Reported evidence and scenario conditions need review. No approved thesis or capital allocation follows from this draft.
Spending lines remain separate. A spending-definition discrepancy can be resolved only by the explicit matched-period bridge below. Reported charges have not been normalized away.
Final pre-purchase thesis breaker remains unselected. Review completion and capital eligibility remain false; zero decision weight.
State: VALUATION_BLOCKED_VALUE_CAPTURE_UNVERIFIED · zero thesis weight · no scenario probabilities.
Model: short_horizon_return_forecast_v1 · open 12 · resolved 0 · Brier —.
Calibration: UNCALIBRATED_INSUFFICIENT_RESOLVED_OUTCOMES
| Asset | Horizon | Return event | Baseline probability | Resolution | State | Realized return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OP | 180d | 20% | 45.8% | 2027-04-04 | OPEN | — |
| SANM | 90d | 0% | 57.5% | 2027-01-04 | OPEN | — |
| ARB | 365d | 50% | 37.8% | 2027-10-06 | OPEN | — |
| ARB | 180d | 20% | 46.8% | 2027-04-04 | OPEN | — |
| SANM | 180d | 10% | 43.5% | 2027-04-04 | OPEN | — |
| SANM | 365d | 25% | 35.5% | 2027-10-06 | OPEN | — |
| OP | 90d | 0% | 61.8% | 2027-01-04 | OPEN | — |
| ARB | 90d | 0% | 62.8% | 2027-01-04 | OPEN | — |
| OP | 365d | 50% | 36.8% | 2027-10-06 | OPEN | — |
| CWEN | 180d | 10% | 44.7% | 2027-04-04 | OPEN | — |
| CWEN | 365d | 25% | 36.7% | 2027-10-06 | OPEN | — |
| CWEN | 90d | 0% | 58.7% | 2027-01-04 | OPEN | — |